Getting the other thoughts out of the way first -
1. Sense of Entitlement combined with Fear :
The result of the 3rd quarterfinal was not that much of a surprise for me. Having seen the ease with which SA collapsed on a spin friendly wicket in Madras against England, against the World's most mediocre offspinner and Yardy, I knew that at the Shere Bangla they would always be vulnerable. NZ have serious spin power in Vettori, alongwith the real McCullum. When Nathan fires, it is hard for sides not used to buckling down and playing out spin.
I think the South Africans suffer from a combination of 2 factors - a sense of entitlement, and fear. The entitlement is created by their strength on paper bolstered by pre-tournament hype. After all they are a really good bunch of players. A team with Amla, Kallis, Steyn, supported by AB, Smith, and with the exciting new find Tahir, is always going to be considered among the pre-tournament favorites. The problem is that the sense of entitlement feeds the fear psychosis in their minds - "surely we can't lose, can we? what if we lose? what will the supporters say? what will the press say? what if it all comes down to me? God, I hope we don't lose?" This creates what fabulous Shane Falco beautifully described as "quicksand" - the fear of losing, which gets deeper and deeper as each subsequent thing goes wrong, until you are so gripped by it, that you are thinking of defeat more than victory and a win becomes impossible.
This is about the best explanation I have of why SA lost. They played with fear in their hearts - fear of defeat - when they had no reason to fear anything. They had the better players, the better skills, the better record, and instead of using that to make themselves stronger in their minds and focussing on victory, they allowed fear to hide in their hearts and rear its ugly head at the first wobble, and then it kept getting stronger and stronger with each wicket until they were paralysed.
India used to do this a lot, back in the 90s. 2001 gave them self belief. Nat West gave them belief. Many more victories gave them belief. Still, the demon of fear is hard to get rid of fully. It returned in the final of the 2003 world cup. It returned again in 2007, against Bangladesh and then Sri Lanka - this same exact mix of entitlement and fear. If you look back at the 2007 team - Sehwag, Tendulkar, Dravid, Ganguly, Kumble, Zaheer, Harbhajan - how can a team with those players lose? Not just lose, but not even make it out of the group? They lost because they doubted. There was no belief, and the fear of losing.
2. The 1st Semi Final:
Is it war? Not really. Although each game must be played on its own merits, I feel the Indian team now feels more nervous about games against Australia than against Pakistan. The era of rivalry with Pakistan is now gone, and in recent times the Indian team has dominated Pakistan. This Pakistani team is quite mediocre anyway, with everyone other than Afridi being basically a journeyman. Younis is classy, but old. Misbah reserves his best bloopers for India. Umar Akmal is not the finished article yet, and is increasingly giving signs that he may never be, being more interested in flashiness and the Akmal family shenanigans than in buckling down and playing some serious Cricket. Akhtar is unlikely to play, and if he does, he is not THAT Akhtar. Gul is not Akhtar either. Neither is Wahab Riaz. The team has been riding Afridi's Magic Wand, as JRod of CWB describes it, but how long can Afridi keep it up.
The biggest thing that differentiates these two teams now is the scale of money the Indian boys earn. It burns the Pakistanis to see their Indian counterparts, from similar smaller towns and middle class backgrounds, often with less talent and ability (or so the Pakistanis would like to believe) earning the kind of money legitimately that the Pakistanis can only dream of, while cavorting with Bollywood starlets, walking the ramp in fashion shows, hobnobbing with politicians and big money, and generally living it up. The Pakistanis have to sell their souls to bookies in Karachi or London, or to shady traders in Dubai for comparatively peanuts while loudly professing their religiosity in every third word they utter in public. The teams will stay in the same hotel in Chandigarh, and the Pakistanis will see the lifestyle of the Indian players, and their spirits will sink. They will be reminded that the entire Pak team will not make in one year what Gambhir will make in 6 weeks of the IPL, regardless of who wins or loses the semi final. They will realize that the Pathan brothers will make 4 million together, and both of them cannot even find a place in the team that will take on the Pakistanis. I do not care whatever the level of righteous motivation the Pakistanis can summon - it will not stand up to the Indian players' nonchalant display of wealth and glamour. The Pakistanis will lose.
The 3 Man Theory
This World Cup has shown that while Cricket is a game played by a team of 11 players, it all really comes down to 3 players. You need :
1. a strong top order batsman, to open well,
2. a strong middle order batsman, who can finish the game, and
3. a go to bowler, who will get you the breakthroughs every time he gets the ball in his hand.
The other 8 players are there to support this top 3 combination, with useful contributions in fielding, bowling and batting, and if one of the 'other 8' has a good day where they pull out a miracle performance with the bat or ball, or a miracle catch or run out, that's bonus. But if the top 3 fail, you will have a bad day, and it becomes tougher for the 'other 8' to do much in that situation.
The top 3 for each QF team in this tournament :
India - Sachin, Yuvraj, Zaheer
Pakistan - Younis, Misbah, Afridi
Sri Lanka - Dilshan, Matthews, Murali
South Africa - Amla, Kallis, Steyn
Australia - Watson, Hussey, Lee
England - Trott, Morgan, Bresnan
New Zealand - Ryder, Taylor, Vettori and Nate McCullum
West Indies - Gayle, Pollard, Roach
The chances of defeat or victory for any team rest on these 3 key players having a good game together. If your top order linch pin has a good game, makes a good score and gives the team a good start, your chances of victory are 30%. If he fails, the chances of a victory are -30%. Next, if the middle order finisher has a good game, your chances go up another 30%, to 60%. If your key bowling spearhead also has a good game, your chances of victory are enhanced by another 30% to 90%. The remaining 10% is for the 'other 8'- the rest of the team, the supporting cast.Now, if the top 3 have a bad game, the share of work to be done by the 'other 8' to pull a victory from the jaws of defeat keeps increasing - for example, if your top bat has a bad day, you are at -30%, but then your middle order finisher has a good game, you are -30% + 30% = 0. In this situation, if your key bowler has a good game also, your chances of victory are -30% + 30% + 30% = 30%. The 'other 8' in this situation have to come up with 70% of the performance, to make up for the deficit.
If you analyze the scorecards of the games so far, or even just the 4 QF games, you can apply these percentages against the names of the players and the result should be obvious.
1. Sense of Entitlement combined with Fear :
The result of the 3rd quarterfinal was not that much of a surprise for me. Having seen the ease with which SA collapsed on a spin friendly wicket in Madras against England, against the World's most mediocre offspinner and Yardy, I knew that at the Shere Bangla they would always be vulnerable. NZ have serious spin power in Vettori, alongwith the real McCullum. When Nathan fires, it is hard for sides not used to buckling down and playing out spin.
I think the South Africans suffer from a combination of 2 factors - a sense of entitlement, and fear. The entitlement is created by their strength on paper bolstered by pre-tournament hype. After all they are a really good bunch of players. A team with Amla, Kallis, Steyn, supported by AB, Smith, and with the exciting new find Tahir, is always going to be considered among the pre-tournament favorites. The problem is that the sense of entitlement feeds the fear psychosis in their minds - "surely we can't lose, can we? what if we lose? what will the supporters say? what will the press say? what if it all comes down to me? God, I hope we don't lose?" This creates what fabulous Shane Falco beautifully described as "quicksand" - the fear of losing, which gets deeper and deeper as each subsequent thing goes wrong, until you are so gripped by it, that you are thinking of defeat more than victory and a win becomes impossible.
This is about the best explanation I have of why SA lost. They played with fear in their hearts - fear of defeat - when they had no reason to fear anything. They had the better players, the better skills, the better record, and instead of using that to make themselves stronger in their minds and focussing on victory, they allowed fear to hide in their hearts and rear its ugly head at the first wobble, and then it kept getting stronger and stronger with each wicket until they were paralysed.
India used to do this a lot, back in the 90s. 2001 gave them self belief. Nat West gave them belief. Many more victories gave them belief. Still, the demon of fear is hard to get rid of fully. It returned in the final of the 2003 world cup. It returned again in 2007, against Bangladesh and then Sri Lanka - this same exact mix of entitlement and fear. If you look back at the 2007 team - Sehwag, Tendulkar, Dravid, Ganguly, Kumble, Zaheer, Harbhajan - how can a team with those players lose? Not just lose, but not even make it out of the group? They lost because they doubted. There was no belief, and the fear of losing.
2. The 1st Semi Final:
Is it war? Not really. Although each game must be played on its own merits, I feel the Indian team now feels more nervous about games against Australia than against Pakistan. The era of rivalry with Pakistan is now gone, and in recent times the Indian team has dominated Pakistan. This Pakistani team is quite mediocre anyway, with everyone other than Afridi being basically a journeyman. Younis is classy, but old. Misbah reserves his best bloopers for India. Umar Akmal is not the finished article yet, and is increasingly giving signs that he may never be, being more interested in flashiness and the Akmal family shenanigans than in buckling down and playing some serious Cricket. Akhtar is unlikely to play, and if he does, he is not THAT Akhtar. Gul is not Akhtar either. Neither is Wahab Riaz. The team has been riding Afridi's Magic Wand, as JRod of CWB describes it, but how long can Afridi keep it up.
The biggest thing that differentiates these two teams now is the scale of money the Indian boys earn. It burns the Pakistanis to see their Indian counterparts, from similar smaller towns and middle class backgrounds, often with less talent and ability (or so the Pakistanis would like to believe) earning the kind of money legitimately that the Pakistanis can only dream of, while cavorting with Bollywood starlets, walking the ramp in fashion shows, hobnobbing with politicians and big money, and generally living it up. The Pakistanis have to sell their souls to bookies in Karachi or London, or to shady traders in Dubai for comparatively peanuts while loudly professing their religiosity in every third word they utter in public. The teams will stay in the same hotel in Chandigarh, and the Pakistanis will see the lifestyle of the Indian players, and their spirits will sink. They will be reminded that the entire Pak team will not make in one year what Gambhir will make in 6 weeks of the IPL, regardless of who wins or loses the semi final. They will realize that the Pathan brothers will make 4 million together, and both of them cannot even find a place in the team that will take on the Pakistanis. I do not care whatever the level of righteous motivation the Pakistanis can summon - it will not stand up to the Indian players' nonchalant display of wealth and glamour. The Pakistanis will lose.
The 3 Man Theory
This World Cup has shown that while Cricket is a game played by a team of 11 players, it all really comes down to 3 players. You need :
1. a strong top order batsman, to open well,
2. a strong middle order batsman, who can finish the game, and
3. a go to bowler, who will get you the breakthroughs every time he gets the ball in his hand.
The other 8 players are there to support this top 3 combination, with useful contributions in fielding, bowling and batting, and if one of the 'other 8' has a good day where they pull out a miracle performance with the bat or ball, or a miracle catch or run out, that's bonus. But if the top 3 fail, you will have a bad day, and it becomes tougher for the 'other 8' to do much in that situation.
The top 3 for each QF team in this tournament :
India - Sachin, Yuvraj, Zaheer
Pakistan - Younis, Misbah, Afridi
Sri Lanka - Dilshan, Matthews, Murali
South Africa - Amla, Kallis, Steyn
Australia - Watson, Hussey, Lee
England - Trott, Morgan, Bresnan
New Zealand - Ryder, Taylor, Vettori and Nate McCullum
West Indies - Gayle, Pollard, Roach
The chances of defeat or victory for any team rest on these 3 key players having a good game together. If your top order linch pin has a good game, makes a good score and gives the team a good start, your chances of victory are 30%. If he fails, the chances of a victory are -30%. Next, if the middle order finisher has a good game, your chances go up another 30%, to 60%. If your key bowling spearhead also has a good game, your chances of victory are enhanced by another 30% to 90%. The remaining 10% is for the 'other 8'- the rest of the team, the supporting cast.Now, if the top 3 have a bad game, the share of work to be done by the 'other 8' to pull a victory from the jaws of defeat keeps increasing - for example, if your top bat has a bad day, you are at -30%, but then your middle order finisher has a good game, you are -30% + 30% = 0. In this situation, if your key bowler has a good game also, your chances of victory are -30% + 30% + 30% = 30%. The 'other 8' in this situation have to come up with 70% of the performance, to make up for the deficit.
If you analyze the scorecards of the games so far, or even just the 4 QF games, you can apply these percentages against the names of the players and the result should be obvious.
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