3 Man Theory and other thoughts

Getting the other thoughts out of the way first -

1. Sense of Entitlement combined with Fear :
The result of the 3rd quarterfinal was not that much of a surprise for me. Having seen the ease with which SA collapsed on a spin friendly wicket in Madras against England, against the World's most mediocre offspinner and Yardy, I knew that at the Shere Bangla they would always be vulnerable. NZ have serious spin power in Vettori, alongwith the real McCullum. When Nathan fires, it is hard for sides not used to buckling down and playing out spin. 

I think the South Africans suffer from a combination of 2 factors - a sense of entitlement, and fear. The entitlement is created by their strength on paper bolstered by pre-tournament hype. After all they are a really good bunch of players. A team with Amla, Kallis, Steyn, supported by AB, Smith, and with the exciting new find Tahir, is always going to be considered among the pre-tournament favorites. The problem is that the sense of entitlement feeds the fear psychosis in their minds - "surely we can't lose, can we? what if we lose? what will the supporters say? what will the press say? what if it all comes down to me? God, I hope we don't lose?" This creates what fabulous Shane Falco beautifully described as "quicksand" - the fear of losing, which gets deeper and deeper as each subsequent thing goes wrong, until you are so gripped by it, that you are thinking of defeat more than victory and a win becomes impossible.

This is about the best explanation I have of why SA lost. They played with fear in their hearts - fear of defeat - when they had no reason to fear anything. They had the better players, the better skills, the better record, and instead of using that to make themselves stronger in their minds and focussing on victory, they allowed fear to hide in their hearts and rear its ugly head at the first wobble, and then it kept getting stronger and stronger with each wicket until they were paralysed.

India used to do this a lot, back in the 90s. 2001 gave them self belief. Nat West gave them belief. Many more victories gave them belief. Still, the demon of fear is hard to get rid of fully. It returned in the final of the 2003 world cup. It returned again in 2007, against Bangladesh and then Sri Lanka - this same exact mix of entitlement and fear. If you look back at the 2007 team - Sehwag, Tendulkar, Dravid, Ganguly, Kumble, Zaheer, Harbhajan - how can a team with those players lose? Not just lose, but not even make it out of the group? They lost because they doubted. There was no belief, and the fear of losing.

2.  The 1st Semi Final:
Is it war? Not really. Although each game must be played on its own merits, I feel the Indian team now feels more nervous about games against Australia than against Pakistan. The era of rivalry with Pakistan is now gone, and in recent times the Indian team has dominated Pakistan. This Pakistani team is quite mediocre anyway, with everyone other than Afridi being basically a journeyman. Younis is classy, but old. Misbah reserves his best bloopers for India. Umar Akmal is not the finished article yet, and is increasingly giving signs that he may never be, being more interested in flashiness and the Akmal family shenanigans than in buckling down and playing some serious Cricket. Akhtar is unlikely to play, and if he does, he is not THAT Akhtar. Gul is not Akhtar either. Neither is Wahab Riaz. The team has been riding Afridi's Magic Wand, as JRod of CWB describes it, but how long can Afridi keep it up.

The biggest thing that differentiates these two teams now is the scale of money the Indian boys earn. It burns the Pakistanis to see their Indian counterparts, from similar smaller towns and middle class backgrounds, often with less talent and ability (or so the Pakistanis would like to believe) earning the kind of money legitimately that the Pakistanis can only dream of, while cavorting with Bollywood starlets, walking the ramp in fashion shows, hobnobbing with politicians and big money, and generally living it up. The Pakistanis have to sell their souls to bookies in Karachi or London, or to shady traders in Dubai for comparatively peanuts while loudly professing their religiosity in every third word they utter in public. The teams will stay in the same hotel in Chandigarh, and the Pakistanis will see the lifestyle of the Indian players, and their spirits will sink. They will be reminded that the entire Pak team will not make in one year what Gambhir will make in 6 weeks of the IPL, regardless of who wins or loses the semi final. They will realize that the Pathan brothers will make 4 million together, and both of them cannot even find a place in the team that will take on the Pakistanis. I do not care whatever the level of righteous motivation the Pakistanis can summon - it will not stand up to the Indian players' nonchalant display of wealth and glamour. The Pakistanis will lose.

The 3 Man Theory

This World Cup has shown that while Cricket is a game played by a team of 11 players, it all really comes down to 3 players. You need :

1. a strong top order batsman, to open well,
2. a strong middle order batsman, who can finish the game, and
3. a go to bowler, who will get you the breakthroughs every time he gets the ball in his hand.

The other 8 players are there to support this top 3 combination, with useful contributions in fielding, bowling and batting, and if one of the 'other 8' has a good day where they pull out a miracle performance with the bat or ball, or a miracle catch or run out, that's bonus. But if the top 3 fail, you will have a bad day, and it becomes tougher for the 'other 8' to do much in that situation.

The top 3 for each QF team in this tournament :

India - Sachin, Yuvraj, Zaheer
Pakistan - Younis, Misbah, Afridi
Sri Lanka - Dilshan, Matthews, Murali
South Africa - Amla, Kallis, Steyn
Australia - Watson, Hussey, Lee
England - Trott, Morgan, Bresnan
New Zealand - Ryder, Taylor, Vettori and Nate McCullum
West Indies - Gayle, Pollard, Roach

The chances of defeat or victory for any team rest on these 3 key players having a good game together. If your top order linch pin has a good game, makes a good score and gives the team a good start, your chances of victory are 30%. If he fails, the chances of a victory are -30%. Next, if the middle order finisher has a good game, your chances go up another 30%, to 60%. If your key bowling spearhead also has a good game, your chances of victory are enhanced by another 30% to 90%. The remaining 10% is for the 'other 8'- the rest of the team, the supporting cast.Now, if the top 3 have a bad game, the share of work to be done by the 'other 8' to pull a victory from the jaws of defeat keeps increasing - for example, if your top bat has a bad day, you are at -30%, but then your middle order finisher has a good game, you are -30% + 30% = 0. In this situation, if your key bowler has a good game also, your chances of victory are -30% + 30% + 30% = 30%. The 'other 8' in this situation have to come up with 70% of the performance, to make up for the deficit.

If you analyze the scorecards of the games so far, or even just the 4 QF games, you can apply these percentages against the names of the players and the result should be obvious.

Quarterfinals preview and some thoughts

First, some thoughts on the tournament so far :
1. the drawn out schedule was criticized by many, but has allowed top players to stay in the tournament, with a few exceptions. The breaks between games have allowed rest from minor injuries and based on the number of top players who were injured prior to the tournament, it is perhaps a blessing in disguise that the major countries had longer breaks to recover.
2. the tournament is made for TV, and th coverage has been good for the most part. The crowds stayed away from the matches featuring lesser teams, but now the stadiums should fill up, specially given the choice of venues.

3. the only thing I have a problem with is the lame theme song. The FIFA World Cup last year gave us "Waka waka" which is catchy and 'global' sounding enough to be a real worldwide hit. In contrast we have a song that starts with the words "aindey baindey"!! seriously? What were they thinking? The lyrics are not Shankar-Ehsaan-Loy's fault, but the melody is nothing to get excited about either. I doubt you will be hearing this song even in local games after the final game. Truly forgettable.
4. Everyone who was calling for an end to the 50 over format should have reason to rethink now. The games have been thrilling, absorbing and hotly contested. Teams have fought hard for each win. I feel that it would be a great loss to the game if this format was to die out. The thing to do as many have suggested is to reduce the number of  games to make them meaningful for the participants and the public, rather than the going through the  motions feeling that pervades ODI cricket right now.


Now to the quarterfinals :

WI v Pak - this should be the easiest game to call. Based on the form of both teams so far, Pak should win this easily. It is not that simple however, as we have seen repeatedly in this tournament. West Indies are not as bad as they have looked in their last 2 games, and but for a few key injuries would have been credible contenders. Take Chris Gayle, Devon Smith, Darren Bravo, the fantastic Bishoo, Pollard, Benn and Roach, and add in the missing ingredients - Barath, Edwards, Dwayne Bravo and Jerome Taylor, and even Sammy would have reason to smile. As it stands, the haunted look on his face watching from the dressing room alone as his team lost from a winning position against India in Chennai is likely to be repeated in Mirpur tomorrow. The irony is that Sammy himself would not have a place in this side if the players I named above were all available and fit to play.

Pakistan are little better really. They have 3 and a half batsmen - Younis, Misbah, and the independent firm of the Akmal brothers. They have 2 and a half bowlers - Gul, Afridi and Razzak and Akhtar. Their fielding is truly pedestrian, and they can collapse from any position to lose a game. They do have the one thing that WI do not seem to have - the will to win. They have been running on desire mostly, supplied largely by Afridi and behind the scenes by Waqar. Pakistan should win, but it is not as simple as it seems.

India v Australia - Australia are in disarray now. They have one bowler, in Lee. They have one batsman, in Hussey. Everyone else is just coasting. Ponting is finding new lows with his batting, and everytime he opens his mouth, he's a lightning rod for criticism. In all the captains of the 8 teams now left, his position is a least secure, and he knows it. He would like to go out on a high, but it is hard to tell based on their 6 games so far if there is anything left in the tank to match the fighting spirit. They let Canada score 150 for 2 in 29 overs. What will a Sachin with nothing to lose and a determined Sehwag do to them.

India are a mystery. Their bowling is paper thin, but Dhoni has been a lucky captain so far. They had one loss in the group, and even that one was really close. They gave South Africa a scare before losing. However, the story is more complex than the 4-1-1 win record. They were scared themselves by Ireland, stretched by Netherlands, and England made their hearts stop. I think it is largely due to the uncalled for experimentation being carried out by Dhoni. He was coming off a hard fought series against South Africa, and should have trusted the team to do what they had been doing - Zaheer to get breakthroughs, Harbhajan to choke the runs, Kohli at number 4 and Pathan at 7. The unnecessary tinkering made for an ugly group stage, with too many close calls, giving rise to over analysis. In the end, their fortunes are almost solely dependent on one player - Yuvraj. He is the only seasoned player in the middle order with the experience and self confidence to take on any opposition in any circumstances. If Yuvi can find the form he showed in the World T20 in 2007, India will win it all. If he falters, they will lose. Simple. Until then, enjoy Sachin's swansong.

New Zealand v South Africa - SA should win this one, right? Wellofcourse, as Dhoni would say, but it is again not as simple as it looks on paper. New Zealand always punch above their weight in tournaments, and if Taylor and McCullum fire, they can give SA a real fight, and who knows, maybe even a bloody nose.

SA have holes, that have been papered over. They have Amla and Kallis at the top of the order, but other than that their batting has been patchy. Duminy always flatters to deceive, and du Plessis sounds very confident, but is inconsistent. In the end, it could come down to Steyn and Kallis doing their brilliant bits with everyone else filling in with useful contributions. This one seems more predictable, but should be an interesting game nevertheless if the New Zealand batsmen get going a bit.

England v Sri Lanka - Sri Lanka at home, with Murali in the kind of killer form he is in, should skittle out England and fulfill the wishes of Collingwood's little daughter who wants her dad to lose the next game so he can finally come home. England don't really want to be here. They want to go home. They should go home. They should have released Eoin Morgan to play for Ireland. The Irish really wanted to play this tournament. Fucking Poms.

NZ v SL March 18 2011

As Murali runs through the NZ batting lineup in Bombay, it is sad to note that this might be his last game on Indian soil, unless SL make it past the knockout stage. At this point, it is likely that SL will play the mercurial English side in the Quarter Final, if India manage to defeat the hapless West Indies, and SA make expected short work of the spirited but out of their depth Bangladeshis. Pakistan should defeat Australia tomorrow, and if they do, it will be either England or India to face Sri Lanka.

A lot of the game's characters will leave after this tournament, including 2 absolute titans in Murali and Sachin. Yes, I am convinced that Sachin will quit ODIs after this world cup. He has not made any announcements, but it is obvious he cannot continue. He is already a liability in the field, and although his batting remains solid, it is only a matter of time before another injury surfaces. This would be the perfect exit for him, no matter where India end up in the tournament, because he has done his utmost to put them in a winning position nearly everytime he goes out to bat. All the pre-tournament hype from Dhoni about winning the cup for him also sounded a bit like "take the cup and go please" to me. The team needs to move on, and learn to live without his magic bat.

Shoaib also announced his retirement, and it is not a moment too soon. He is running on will and fumes at this point, and it is a sad sight to watch him limp back to his mark for every delivery, even though he manages to retain his 145kph pace nearly every ball, at least in his first spell. The mind has got to be tired though, and it shows on his face as he trundles in and tries to force another missile fast ball into the stumps.

NZ were looking good today until Sanga and Mathews took the game away from them, and then the batting crumbled just when they had a small enough target to chase. Murali's stats are amazing at this point - 7 - 0 20- 3 @ 2.85. Wow. Far and away the best spinner in the tournament, he stands so far above everyone else it is scary to think the loss to spin bowling after he hangs them up. Which brings me to another thought I had recently - being played on the subcontinent, this cup was supposed to be a spinners' paradise, and by and large they have responded well. Even the part timers like Afridi, Yuvraj and have looked effective, while some of the regulars have really impressed. While some of the regulars like Krejza for instance have looked useless, several youngsters like Dockrell for example, have really made use of the conditions and left a mark. The associates in fact seem to have better young spinners in their stables than the test playing nations.

WI v Ireland March 10th, 2011

11:40 PM - Tenth over on and WI are 23 for none. How the mighty have fallen. I'm staying up to watch this game not just because there's a buzz about Ireland now, but also to get a look at Darren Bravo, who is apparently the next great batsman out of Trinidad.

So far, Chanderpaul is keeping Irish bowlers out, and Smith is flashing outside off regularly, and has already been dropped once. Key players out for both teams - Johnston for Ireland and more crucially, Gayle for WI.

11:45 PM - 10.1 overs now, and Chanderpaul has taken guard in his inimitable way, hammering the bail into the crease, for I believe the third time.

12:10 AM - Smith still survives. And on the first ball of the 17th over, hits the first positive shot I've seen him hit all day. Nice boundary to a quick half-volley, driven through mid-on, just past the diving Kevin O'Brien. I'm not a Smith fan. If this is the best West Indies have to offer, I feel sad for the state of Cricket in the Caribbean.

Tony Cozier claims on TV that West Indies have limped their way to 58 off 17 overs. Cozier, like a majority of West Indian commentators, knows exactly what is wrong with everything, and is relentlessly resentful about it.  Ian Bishop is such a breath of fresh air after the unpleasantness of the likes of Cozier and Holding. Drinks.

12:17 AM - The Irish have 6 fielders in the circle  for Shiv Chanderpaul. They are fielding like tigers - so many boundaries have been stopped. Against India, with the same shots, the West Indies would have been around 120 for no loss at the same point in the match.

12:19 AM - Smith just hit a 6 off Kevin O'Brien, as if to celebrate Cozier leaving the commentary box.

I wonder who does marketing for Willow TV in the States. They must have sold a crapload of subscriptions at roughly $130-140 a pop, but from an advertising perspective, this is a huge wasted opportunity. The Indian community in the US, not to mention the Paki, Bangladeshi and Sri Lankan communities, along with the odd Aussie ex-pats - are treated to an onslaught of bad advertising which suggests that the watchers of Willow in the US are 1. exclusively Indian, and 2. are always either buying Car Insurance for their precious Toyotas, or Life Insurance to pass on their precious legacy, or buying medical Insurance for their parents to visit the US, or sending money home to their parents and obsessed with exchange rates. Seriously? I wonder what kind of pricing model Willow has from their feed providers. At a conservative estimate I think they would have sold at least 100,000 of these 140$ subscriptions. That is 14 Millions $. I think if they marketed this event correctly, they could triple their take or even more, through big sponsors.

12: 45 AM - finally Chanderpaul goes. Thank heavens. He was looking to match Gavaskar's slow innings or something, Bravo in. This should get interesting.

12:47 AM - Or not!!! KJ O'Brien has clean bowled Bravo. So much for staying up late to catch the next great West Indian batsman. Cleaned up bya Yorker clocked at 119.6 km/h. Bhangra roars on the PA system as the Irish celebrate and Bravo walks out.

Next in, Sarwan. He will now resume the task begun by Chanderpaul, of trying to bore the Irish to death. I'm going to sleep right now. Hope the f'ing West Indies lose. They do not deserve to carry on in the competition. Wonder how the Bongs lost to these clowns - oh sorry, forgot, only the Deshis out do the West Indies when it comes to reliable incompetence.